Tuesday, November 19, 2024

2024 Election: Not About Trump

  

 


        

            As much as the Democrat Party, progressives, and Never-Trump conservatives, most of the last being neocons, wanted to make this election about the personality or character of Donald Trump. It was not. I should add that Trump himself may have wanted, and may believe, the election was about him. It was not.

The rhetoric against Trump was that he is not morally fit. Of great concern in this line of thinking is that he is authoritarian, fascist, Hitler, misogynist, and racist. Kamala Harris joined this group late in the campaign. 

In this brief essay, my goal is to calmly consider a hotly contested election that had plenty of heated rhetoric on both sides. I will be pointing to some evidence from the election, but I will also be making inferences from that data that will move into the realm of intuition, and therefore a leap of thought. This ought to create a degree of tolerance, on your part as a reader, and on my part if you as a reader make a different leap of thought. As Wiliam James in his 1896 lecture The Will to Believe put it, intuition is a valid way toward making decisions and maintain our concern for truth. Such hunches do not have the character of empirical proof, but they are attempts to learn from this election. We see, we reason about what we see, but we also become present to self and world in a way that allows us to see connections beyond black/white, either/or thinking. Given that I am in this realm of reflection, I can only hope that what I share arises with humility and exhibits tolerance toward someone else who might view the same data, share the common experience of this election, but move in a different direction. 

I begin by sharing some questions that guide my reflections.

How does racist Trump increase his share of black and Hispanic votes?

How does misogynistic Trump increase his support among suburban women?

Is it too much to ask that identity politics would end after the inroads Trump made into the Democratic coalition? Given the comments on my X feed, Yes it is, sadly.

How do you peacefully transfer power to Hitler, to the man who is an existential threat to democracy? The lie to this concern has been that since the sweeping GOP win, Harris and Biden promise a smooth transition. Had they believed their own rhetoric, there would not be a smooth transition of power to Trump-Vance and his team. 

            This is a deeply divided nation politically. The election was close in the popular vote. The battleground states were close, Trump taking all seven such states. Further, even in blue states, Trump significantly increased his percentage from 2020. It was a significant win, and as in most elections, a portion of the persuadable electorate went to Trump. My interest here is not in why80-90% of the voting public are committed to the political Left or the political Right. My interest is in what makes 6 or 7 % of the remaining voters collectively move in one way or the other. That group moved toward Trump and the GOP this year.

            Political conservatives might like to think it was a move to the political right, but it was not.

            Kamala Harris, make sure you pronounce her name right or you are a misogynist and racist, was a bad candidate. She supported defund the police. She wanted to confiscate guns. Her support for the green agenda, of which fracking became a symbol, her support for the trans agenda, her support for open borders, her inability to say how she would differ from Biden, became problems that pushed people toward Trump. Obama scolding black men for not showing enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is unseemly. Thinking men need counseling for not enthusiastically voting for Kamala Harris shows little understanding of why people, not just men, vote the way they do. The effort to re-brand her was not successful. The point is that the election was not about her, especially her as a woman or a person of color. She was the shiny object to distract voters from the machinery in Washington DC that has set America on a path that many voters said in polls was the wrong direction. She still received about 47% of the popular vote. There are a solid number of people on the political Left who will vote for the most liberal candidate. The ability of the Democrat Party to get out their voters is amazing, given how bad their candidates for President and Vice-President were. In this election some usually conservative voters were concerned about Trump, but not as many as Kamala Harris needed. People who voted against her did not do so because she was a woman or because she was black. The election had little to do with her.

            Donald Trump designed an amazing campaign that broke apart the Democrat Party coalition that included union workers, Jews, Catholics, blacks, Hispanics, college educated, and women. He knew he would have a certain percentage of the voting public just because he was conservative. He expanded his base by making inroads into the Catholic, Jewish, Hispanic, and black vote. He also had two assassination attempts, Thomas Matthew Crooks on July 13, 2024, in Butler County, PA and Ryan Wesley Routh on Sunday, September 15, 2024, at a Trump property while he was golfing. After the first one, still bleeding, rising to say “Fight, Fight, Fight,” was an inspiration. For many Americans, battling through the thinly veiled political nature of lawfare was a sign of strength. Like all of us, Trump has his failings. In Christian terms, we are all sinners. His failings and sins were not what defined him in the minds of many Americans.

Yet, I do not think any of this quite gets to what tipped the scales to Donald Trump. I grant that some voters were excited about Harris or Trump. However, I am going to suggest that what tipped the scales toward Trump was a sense that something was not normal in America, and that America needed a return to normalcy. In that sense, when Biden suggested a return to normalcy was important at his inauguration, he was right. Had his presidency modeled that thought, everything may well have ended differently. As Democrat West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin says every at every opportunity, he failed to do so. I can hear those who believe the rhetoric about Trump laugh when I say that voters for Trump in this election what a return to normalcy, but I ask you to hear me out.

To put the theme directly: the Trump-Vance campaign, combined with the GOP candidates, were the moderates in this election. The Democrat Party put themselves on the extreme Left end of political thought. This was intentional by Obama, Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, and Schumer as political leaders of that party. 

Is it a surprise that the economy drove voters of all types, especially Blacks, Hispanics, suburban white women, and youth, to Trump?

Is it a surprise that illegal immigration and open borders drove people of all types to Trump?

Is it a surprise that the American people do not want endless wars?

Is it a surprise that Americans do not want to coddle pro-Hamas and anti-Jewish demonstrations on campus that make Jews uncomfortable to go to college? 

What is this, that the political opponents of Trump use the law to put a former president in jail? Adding to that, taking after his family? This effort reminded me of the impeachment of Bill Clinton, which also seemed to many voters to be a political rather than legal effort to bring down a political opponent. 

How has a political party that claims to be pro woman support biological males in female sports? Does anyone think it would have no effect on elections forever?

How does a political strategist think that a closing argument promoting late term abortions is going to persuade Hispanics and Catholics to move toward Harris?

How does Joe Biden get 16 million more votes in 2020 than did Obama in 2012 and Harris in 2020? I do not know. Biden won 81.2 million votes in 2020, while Trump won in 2024 with 76,500, when he had 74.2 million in 2020 and Harris lost in 2024 with 73,900, although these totals are not final. I do know that Biden beat the vote totals of Harris in every state, and I think in every precinct, and he beat her in demographics like black, women, and youth. 

The lack of insight into why the election went the way it did will be a self-inflicted malady. The continued efforts to paint all things Trump as fascist, Hitler, and white-supremacist will work with those who already believe it but will not be persuasive outside that self-created echo-chamber. 

I was impressed with the final Rasmussen poll, but then, I have been impressed historically with this poll:

 

🔴 Trump: 49% (+3)

🔵 Harris: 46%

🟢 Other: 3%

🟡 Undecided: 2%

 

At Trump +3% Popular Vote:

 

1.  TRUMP Wins 310-330 EVs

2. HOUSE GOP Gains 10-30 additional seats – this was wrong

3.  SENATE GOP Gains 3-6 additional seats

 

I voted for GOP in Florida because I am a political conservative. I want less federal government. I want fewer wars, and thus did not like George W. Bush in the Middle East or Biden in Ukraine. It was enough for me that RFKJr, for whom I would have voted, Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, Nikki Haley, for whom I did vote, are campaigning for Trump. It may seem minor, but Riley Gaines makes a strong point protecting female sports as important in itself as well as a symbol of larger issue. I trust that if we are friends, we will stay such even if we disagree on this political matter. There are things far more important than that. 

I have read the Democrat Party platform. The Dem platform had entire chapters with which I disagreed, climate change agenda being the big one. However, entire chapters seemed like an alternate universe to me. I just do not see the world scene or the military, for example, being in such wonderful shape as the document says. I certainly do not see the economy as being such great shape as the document suggests. More than that, I can only assume that this document stands as the Harris agenda, although most of it understandable refers to Biden. It rarely mentioned Biden (7 times in 24 pages), whereas Dems mentioned Trump 150 times in 91 pages, and refers to the MAGA crowd in a derogatory way regularly. The Dems in tone were polemical, broadsides against their opponents. Polemics can help people see the differences between two sides. The weakness of a polemic is that it exaggerates one’s own virtues and paints the opponent as if they have nothing to contribute to the country. Overall, I get that they really do not like Trump, but that is not a policy. I also get that they think a climate emergency requires immediate action, and I do not. I also get that they want abortions mandated as a right rather than differentiated democratically within the states, which I also disagree with. They think democracy is at risk when they are the ones who removed their own nominee through elites, replaced the voted upon nominee by the elite, and have colluded with social media to suppress free speech, as Zuckerberg has recently admitted. They really like the American Rescue Plan. They think they have done a wonderful job on the border. They think they have done a wonderful job with crime. It shows that when it comes to statistics, one can make them serve any agenda one wants.

In contrast, the GOP platform is nice, a 21—page statement of the values to which it is committed and the principles it will use to get there. 

I would encourage anyone to read the two platforms and decide which sounds like the direction you would like to see the country go.

In addition, the two conventions were starkly different. 

The GOP convention had many powerful moments. As vice-President, Trump has selected J. D. Vance, someone who will be loyal to him, but who, given his Marine background, his rise from rural Ohio, and his education, will bring youth and vitality to the ticket. 

The speech by Trump accepting the GOP nomination was calm. I highlight what I think were moments when Trump appealed for unity.

The discord and division in our society must be healed. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart. I am running to be president for ALL of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America. 

Despite such a heinous attack, we unite this evening more determined than ever. Our resolve is unbroken, and our purpose is unchanged--to deliver a government that serves the American People.

Nothing will stop me in this mission. Because our vision is righteous, and our cause is pure.

No matter what obstacle comes our way: we will not break. We will not bend. We will not back down. And I will never stop fighting for you, your family, and our magnificent country. 

Everything I have to give, with all of the energy and fight in my heart and soul, I pledge to our nation tonight.

This election should be about the issues facing our country and how to make America successful, safe, free, and great again. In an age when our politics too often divide us, now is the time to remember that we are all fellow citizens—we are one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. 

Just a few short days ago, my journey with you nearly ended. And yet here we are tonight, all gathered together, talking about the future, promise, and renewal of America. We live in a world of miracles. 

None of us knows God’s plan, or where life’s adventure will take us. But if the events of last Saturday make anything clear, it is that every single moment we have on earth is a gift from God. We have to make the most of every day for the people and country we love.

The attacker in Pennsylvania wanted to stop our movement—but the truth is, this movement has never been about me, it has always been about YOU. It has always been about the hardworking, patriotic citizens of America. 

Your expectations are not big enough. It is time to start expecting and demanding the best leadership in the world, leadership that is bold, dynamic, relentless, and fearless. 

We are Americans. Ambition is our heritage. Greatness is our birthright.  

But as long as our energies are spent fighting each other, our destiny will remain out of reach. We must instead take that energy and use it to realize our country’s true potential—and write our own thrilling chapter of the American Story. 

It is a story of love, sacrifice, success, and unmatched devotion. 

Just like our ancestors, we must now come together, rise above past differences and disagreements, and go forward united, as one people, and one nation, pledging allegiance to one great and beautiful American flag. 

Tonight, I ask for your partnership, for your support, and I am humbly asking for your vote. Every day, I will strive to honor the trust you have placed in me, and I will never let you down.

 

Trump delivered a speech at Turning Point USA. I advise watching the full speech, as he is sharpening his speech against Harris and refining the presentation of what he hopes to do with a second term. For me, he came across as calm and moderate. I did not think the Democrat Party could do that, but with Kamala Harris and her left-wing extreme agenda, Trump is the moderate in this race. I do not advise taking the Harris interpretation of the speech as anything other than a dream on their part:

 

“Tonight, Donald Trump couldn’t pronounce words, insulted the faith of Jewish and Catholic Americans, lied about the election (again), lied about other stuff, bragged about repealing Roe, proposed cutting billions in education funding, announced he would appoint more extremist judges, revealed he planned to fill a second Trump term with more criminals like himself, attacked lawful voting, went on and on and on, and generally sounded like someone you wouldn’t want to sit near at a restaurant – let alone be President of the United States."

 

The lackluster performance of Joe Biden in the first debate and his continued feebleness led many Democrat political leaders to urge him to drop out of the race. However, the Wall Street Journal has convincingly shown that the staff of Joe Biden has been covering for him from the beginning. This means that his wife and family have provided cover, as well as his staff. It also means that Obama has been the one making the decisions. The Biden weakness in the debate provided the occasion for Kamala Harris to be the nominee. The rapid unity of the Democrat Party behind her on the surface is surprising. The immediate influx of money is superficially surprising. However, it all appears orchestrated. After the debate, President Obama guided Biden off the stage. This began the efforts to get Biden to step down from being the nominee of the Party. It seems clear Pelosi, Obama, Schumer, and the Clintons run the Party and have guided this process. If we learn the truth, my suspicion is that Harris or another member of the Cabinet threatened Biden with invoking the 25th amendment and shame him into stepping down from a nomination process in which he proved himself the favorite of Democrat voters. In that sense, it was a coup, but obviously, not in the sense of a threat of violence. My suspicion all along has been that the Biden presidency is the third term of Obama, and I think this process indicates that is true. As I understand it, Obama and the Clintons do not like each other, but they want the Democrat Party in power and they have a deep disgust of Donald Trump, especially since he is, in their words, a threat to democracy, coupled with viewing him as fascist with dictator plans. Harris brings much to the table. Her gender and ethnicity will form a sharp contrast with the GOP ticket that will be attractive to many. It will feed the narrative that Trump and the GOP are racist and misogynist. 

What I find striking here is that the same cabal that undermined the first Trump presidency with the Russia Hoax, impeached Trump, accused Trump of insurrection, and brought legal challenges to Trump, also engineered the departure of Joe Biden from this race. I also find it striking that the Party united around Kamala Harris, who received zero delegates in the 2020 primary. Money guided this unusual process. If Harris were not on the ticket, the money would have to be returned to the donors. As soon as Biden stepped down, money flowed to the Democrat Party.

The shift in the media was swift. It was not long ago that most of the media defended the competency of Biden and said the accusation to the contrary was right wing propaganda. The push was on to have Biden step away from being the Democrat nominee, even though he had won the primary. The reason had nothing to do with his health and everything to do with the fear that he would lose. The shift was also swift in recasting Harris from being an ineffective VP who had trouble with keeping staff to being a rock star. One cannot dismiss lightly the free campaign ads that many news outlets will offer.

I voted for GOP in Florida because I am political conservative. Since that was a move I made in the late 1970s, some of my college friends might be surprised. It was enough for me that RFKJr, Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, Nikki Haley, are campaigning for him. It may seem minor but protecting female sports is import in itself as well as a symbol of larger issue. In fact, you can make the case, as the Wall Street Journal editorial board recently did, that Harris “is the least-known candidate in modern history.”

Since the election, Donald Trump has moved quickly on sharing his appointments for his administration. They are mostly young and unburdened by the past, to use a favorite theme of Vice-President Harris. A 78-year-old President wants a team assembled from a different generation than the generation that got the federal government into the bloated mess it has become. Some of his team have been standard, but many are unusual. Given the involvement of the FBI and CIA in attempts to undermine his first term through the Russia Hoax, the efforts over the last four years of the legal system moving against him and his family, and the Pentagon in promoting the trans-agenda of the Democrat Party and promoting endless wars of the neocons, I am not surprised that Trump wants people in those positions that he can trust and who will not undermine him. Not using the FBI to give background checks, but rather a private firm, is also understandable, given the history with the FBI. Sadly, the weaponization of these departments against Trump, his family, and political conservatives, has brought us to this place. There will undoubtedly be people fired. These efforts will be presented as fascist and authoritarian, but to use this rhetoric against those who descend low enough to use it, what was fascist and authoritarian was Obama-Biden weaponizing these agencies against Trump and undermining his first term. 

Both sides use the language of saving America from the other side, but I think America needs saving from both sides. The television show Fallout (2024) showed a dystopian future created by two opposing groups who believed the world needed to be saved from the other side. I want to calmly consider this election. 

I have come across the Dignity Index, which seeks to promote respect for the opposition in the public square. I would encourage anyone to read it. The dehumanizing of the opponent is part of the sense that we have departed from normalcy.

The rhetoric in this country has always been vigorous around presidential elections. However, it has rarely reached the level where the advice of one side, this time the political Left, advises its loyalists to isolate themselves from friendships from the other side. This is what happens with the true believer, in this case, that Trump is fascists, and therefore his voters are fascist. To vilify half the country in this way is an unacceptable attempt at shaming people into the political Left. I agree with Michael LaRosa, former spokesperson for Jill Biden, who in his colorful way said on X “This s*** has to stop,” which is how he responded to an MSNBC guest who referred to Pete Hegseth as a white supremacist for opposing DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) because of the way it is applied. His point was that one can oppose that policy for reasons other than being a white supremacist. Reducing serious policy differences to identity politics is shallow form of thinking. 

Which leads me to consider another possibility about the rhetoric on the pollical Left. Respect for the worth and dignity of the political opposition is basic in a democracy, for it is what keeps winners from persecuting and jailing the losers. Donald Trump has become the shiny object for the progressive to use this extreme rhetoric to deflect attention of voters from their unusual behavior. DEI and the trans agenda have become political ways to stifle debate and to lead to potentially dangerous results, such as a woman stepping into a boxing ring with a biological male. Do you really want your daughter to be in the rest room with a biological male? Disagreeing with such movements politically is compatible with respecting the diverse nature of modern societies, valuing equality of opportunity, and providing an inclusive embrace of human beings simply because they are human beings, apart from their beliefs and values. Beyond this, top leaders of the Democrat Party using the FBI, CIA, (Russia Hoax primary among them), federal lawyers, against those who have ideas they do not like, whether Trump or others, and engineering social media monopolies to target political conservatives, using fact checks inappropriately, all just seem weird, to use the Tim Walz term. The warning signs are there in the way Britain and the European Union are applying DEI in jailing people who do not use the right pronouns. Something feels quite undemocratic and unamerican about all this.

Rules of civility and respect are difficult to apply in the political arena, especially when the election concerns the most powerful position on the planet. However, one would appreciate at least the attempt. 

Culturally, things are changing rapidly. To “Adam Schiff” someone is becoming a verb to describe unsavory and deceptive actions, as in to unfairly accuse. The Trump shuffle is becoming a thing in the sports world. Joe and Mica of MSNBC, who have been relentless on the Hitler, fascist, threat to democracy, and threat to women, went to Mar-largo to visit with Trump. The criticism of this visit from the Left has been that it normalizes Trump. The lack of self-reflection here is amazing, for they are the ones who need to normalize their relationship to Trump and to his voters. His 75 million voters, most of whom voted to support his agenda in the House and Senate, have already normalized him. Normal is becoming cool again. The atmosphere is incredibly different from 2016. 

For Christians, the election is not a basis for either depression or hope. Christian confidence is in what God has done in Jesus Christ. Further, it is time to remember that Jesus calls us to love our neighbor, regardless of their beliefs and values. To put a sharper point on it, if your neighbor is a person transitioning their gender, Jesus calls you to love them. Regardless of the color of their skin, their religious beliefs, their political beliefs you are not love them and pray for them. Jesus advises us to love the enemy. The New Testament epistles call upon us to pray for our leaders. In this political environment, Christians need to have a witness that their allegiance to Jesus transcends their political allegiance, and they demean that witness when they identify their faith with their political allegiance, or worse, identify it by the person who they are against. An act of political courage by the Christian in this environment is to speak truth to the powerful within your political tribe.

John Wesley offered some advice to his societies on October 6, 1774:

 

I met those of our society who had voted in the ensuing election and advised them:

       To vote, without fee or reward, for the person they judged most worthy

       To speak no evil of the person they voted against, and

        To take care their spirits were not sharpened against those that voted on the other side.

 

Lord, hear our prayer.