I read with interest the predictions by many of a red wave. Newt Gingrich was one. The Republicans could see large gains in both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 8 elections. He thought 53-57 seats in the Senate and 44 up in the House. FiveThirtyEight, a non-partisan forecaster, estimated there is a better than four in five chance that Republicans win the House. It also predicted, for the first time since July, that Republicans are likely to capture a majority in the Senate as well. The model from RealClearPolitics shows that the GOP will control the Senate with 54 seats, as compared to Democrats’ 46 seats. It predicted that Republicans will now likely take seats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I was confident the GOP would do well in Florida, and it did. I was not so confident about the rest of the country. I was not sensing such a red wave. Newt Gingrich admitted that he has never been so wrong about the results of an election, and he would need to spend some time reflecting on why. “It makes me challenge every model I’m aware of and realize that I have to really stop and spend a good bit of time thinking and trying to put it all together.” He did point to one bright spot. A vote tracking sheet by the Cook Political Report, a bipartisan newsletter that analyzes elections, which shows a 50.7 million Republican turnout for the House—outnumbering Democrat votes by 6 million. Gingrich noted this gap could shrink to 5 million when ballots in deep blue California are fully processed. “But it’s still 5 million more votes.” It also estimated that Republicans got 52.3% of the vote for the House compared to 46.2% of the vote for Democrats. That 6.1% margin was greater than the 2.5% generic Republican advantage from the average of the national polls just before the election.
In terms of results, leaders like Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp, Greg Abbott, J.D. Vance, Ted Budd, and so many others who are committed to conservative principles. From the conservative perspective, candidates among the progressives like Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, and Charlie Crist and voters in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, respectively, soundly rejected them.
The money raised by Democrats is far greater than that raised by the GOP, according to www.opensecrets.org. However, spending by the GOP was greater. This means the Democrat Party will have a much larger campaign war chest for the next election. In case you are wondering, George Soros was the largest contributor to campaigns, all to Democrat candidates. Thus, when J. D. Vance says that money was the reason for the Democrat success, I respectfully disagree.
I kept track of the prediction by Newt because I hoped what he predicted would happen. I have much respect for him. However, I was skeptical. Thus, this is a time when I wish I could talk with Newt. If I could, I would say two things.
The first thing I would say is that he did not consider the part of the political Left that we can describe as progressive. It is not that their numbers are large, if we accept the Pew Center numbers. However, the progressive part of the Left is highly motivated and politically engaged. In primaries and in mid-term elections, they will have an outsized influence. One unique aspect of the progressive is that in comparison even with other members of the Left, they harbor anger and hostility toward conservatives and the GOP. This is highly motivating. Although Donald Trump energized them in this, they were angry with conservatives before that. Conservatives represent to them a respect for the Constitution, the history of the country, and the positive role America plays in the world that the progressive does not share. The alienation the progressive feels from the country and from Western civilization is real and deep. Here are some signs of your alienation from the country: you do not like the 4th of July, Columbus Day, or Thanksgiving Day. Such national days are simple expressions of gratitude for this nation, its history, its liberties, and its role in the world. Such simple acts are not ways to deify the nation or have a “love it or leave it” attitude. Like every nation, certain days are special and honored not because the nation is perfect, but precisely because it aspires to build upon its past and become a better nation. The progressive looks upon the country as systemically racist and its political, economic, and cultural institutions in need of an overhaul, the conservative blocks their path to accomplish this. I was encouraged that V. D. Hanson noted that this motivation, especially by the under 30 group and single women, was not picked up by many pollsters. Thus, regardless of the inflation, the reduction of the stock market, the involvement in foreign wars, the risks of open borders, the increase of violence in major cities, the abuses of power, and the weakness of many of the Democrat candidates, they will do all they can to keep the GOP out of power.
The second thing I would say to him is that his appreciation for Donald Trump blinded him to what the present effect of Trump is upon the GOP. Given the fundamentals of this election cycle, the open seats in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada should have been easy wins. Instead, they were weighed down by the Trump name and the stupid Jan. 6 incident that everyone wants to forget about except Donald Trump and those who leverage his obsession with it into a leftist passion. Trump could have remained silent during the primaries and allow the GOP to work out its issues separate from his advice, but it was not in his nature to do so. He promoted individuals in certain campaigns who were like him in thinking of the 2020 election as stolen from him. Voters have decided, rightly in my view, that the election was fairly decided. Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Dan Cox in Maryland, Tim Michels in Wisconsin, have lost, and Kari Lake in Arizona may also lose. He picked out Don Bolduc for special negative treatment and saying he deserved defeat in a campaign that should have been won in the toss-up state of New Hampshire. He also celebrated the defeat of moderate Republican Joe O’Dea. Yet, some important Trump-supported candidates did win, including J. D. Vance in Ohio and Ted Budd in North Carolina.
With Ron DeSantis and his strong victory in Florida along with the rest of the GOP, Trump was taking potshots at “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Telling him to back off a presidential run was the last straw for me and many conservatives. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp handily defeated Democratic darling Stacey Abrams, despite Trump’s personal attempts to defeat Kemp in his primary—again, due to Kemp’s failure to illegally flip the state to Trump in the 2020 election. Georgians trust Kemp; he won.
To be clear, my approach to Trump has been ad hoc, meaning I considered him policy by policy. I did not vote for him in 2016. When I moved to Florida, a state where I thought my vote might matter, I did vote for him. I am not sorry about that vote. I believe retirement accounts and the economy would have been much better with Trump as President, the border would be secure, less money spent in Ukraine, and many other positive effects. I have never accepted the racist-fascist label certain groups lay upon him. For me, his work in NYC, NBC, and his dating of a black model, put such ideas to rest.
However, conservatives are now at a point where Trump, who has declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination, will be destructive to the conservative cause, which is my primary concern. I would be pleasantly surprised if he conducted his campaign by focusing on the issues that divide him from other candidates and accept the results of the primaries. This would mean setting aside his usual recklessness and arrogance exhibited in trashing his opposition. My concern is that if Trump follows his usual pattern but does not receive the nomination, enough of his voters will sit out the election to have an impact. If he does win the nomination with his usual pattern, many conservatives will sit out the election, not being able to go with someone who could not accept defeat and who attacks successful GOP elected officials. If this scenario occurs, we are headed toward an election like that of 1964, where the conservative cause suffered in the House and Senate elections, as well as losing the presidency.
My take is that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis emerges as a dominant force in conservative politics. His landslide win in Florida carried all down-ticket statewide candidates throughout Florida, which has become as utterly red as California has turned all blue. In addition, there are so many other good leaders on the conservative side: Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tim Scott are among them.
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