2012 Presidential Election Predictions

As a United Methodist pastor, I am glad our Social Principles acknowledge that "we know ourselves to be responsible to God for social and political life" in paragraph 164. This brief blog looks at some predictions made by observers of the 2012 presidential election.

When the Republican Party had its primary season, my assumption was that Obama would win re-election. Lately, a few commentators are predicting a Romney win. As I see some predictions, I thought I would post and see how well they do.

Michael Barone: The only way Pennsylvania and Michigan can be close is if Obama's support in affluent Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs has melted away....What we may be seeing, as we drink from the fire hose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow motion 1980.The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points.

Ben Shapiro:Obama's presidency reflected his poverty of ideas. Now his campaign does, too.
A small campaign means an unstable campaign. When you're forced to jump topic to topic, debating inconsequential ideas with gusto, your campaign seems to swing unpredictably back and forth. When you're discussing Romnesia one day and binders the next, you're losing. A big campaign, by contrast, has big themes. Obama has no themes because he has no record and no second-term agenda. Romney has themes: economic growth through tax cuts and less burdensome regulation, a foreign policy based on a stronger military. Because he has themes, he seems steady. And that's why he will win. None of this is going to change in the next two weeks. Obama's record will not suddenly allow him to become an ardent advocate of his own job performance. And he won't come up with any bold new plans -- he has nothing left in the tank. The ball is in Mitt Romney's court. And the American people know it.


Hugh Hewitt: The nation is simply finished with a president whose rhetoric has never been matched by his actions, and whose performance has removed Jimmy Carter from the bottom of the rankings of the modern president. Mitt Romney by contrast followed two very strong debate showings with a wonderful set of remarks at the Al Smith dinner, the third time in two weeks that he has reassured those just tuning into the presidential campaign that he will be a steady and reliable force for good in the Oval Office. And what a surge. Romney was up seven points in Thursday's Gallup tracking poll, and even the very partisan Democratic polling firm PPP has Romney ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire on Friday. There is a 1980 landslide forming, and while the MSM is doing its best to pretend it isn't there and that the race is still close. It isn't, and it won't be. The electoral cake is baked.

Dick Morris: Overall: Likely a 5-10 pt Romney win and above 300 electoral votes. His final predictions: In the popular vote, Romney will win by more than 5 points, and Electoral College 325 Romney and 213 Obama.

Karl Rove: My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

Linda Chavez: they (the American people) like the president personally and wanted to give him a chance to prove he deserved re-election. But he hasn't given a single, convincing reason why he should be, which is why I believe Americans will vote for genuine change Nov. 6.

National syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer believes it will be close, but that Romney will come out with the victory over President Obama on Tuesday.

Michael Barone is forecasting that Romney will defeat President Obama by a wide margin, 315 electoral votes to 223. He predicts that Romney will win nearly every swing state, including Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia. Barone admitted, however, that he is going out on a limb with some of his calls.

Rich Galen:  "four years ago Barack Obama was on a crusade; this year he's in a campaign."
Obama won the crusade, but Mitt Romney will win this campaign. I know … I know. The polls are close. The national polls are tied; the state polls tilt toward Barack Obama. I know all that. But, Romney will win.